‽istis feels the heat… (weekending July 31st 2021)
In a week when the work of the
UK’s Climate Change Committee[i] leads to headlines that cut
through alongside:
· the 2020 (sic) Olympics,
· empty supermarket shelves,
· Covid-19 latest stats (but perhaps, sadly, not
necessarily the stories behind those figures - of the people and families and
health and social care professionals, researchers and essential keyworkers who
continue to work so hard for us all)
· the apparent boost to the RNLI’s (Royal National
Lifeboat Institution) income[ii] following comments by a past
politician/more recent TV presenter (who has perhaps alighted on the possibly
sinking ship of a fledgling TV News channel)
…‽istis feels the
heat.
Exploring the website and published
reports of the Climate Change Committee (the UK’s adviser on
tackling climate change - an independent, statutory body established under
the Climate Change Act 2008, whose ‘…purpose is to advise the UK and devolved
governments on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress made
in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for and adapting to the
impacts of climate change’) ‽istis has been absorbed in the research,
shocked anew by the findings and deeply, deeply troubled by what on earth seems
to be happening!
‽
the Research to review and update indicators of climate-related risks
and actions in England [iii] focuses on 9 indicators of
climate-related risk and an assessment of related actions, that may be of
benefit to the built environment, infrastructure, the natural environment,
people and health, business. In classic risk assessment style, it sets out i)
the ‘state of the art’: trends in risk factors (hazard, vulnerability and
exposure) and, ii) mitigation: trends in adaptation action (input and output)
and impacts. And the reader is taken into the world behind the headlines: the
rate of development of properties in areas at risk of flooding; the area of
impermeable surface in urban areas; the area under vine and the volume of wines
produced; the change in the total hedgerow length, etc… and the devil
seems to lurk in the detail!
‽
and then there’s the Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk[iv] setting out the priority
climate change risks and opportunities for the UK and the linked website: www.ukclimaterisk.org hosts all the resource
material. And what stood out for ‽istis?:
· the identification of more than 60 areas of risk
and opportunity relating to the natural environment, health, homes,
infrastructure upon which we rely, the economy (that’s pretty much the
fundamentals of life?)
· that the gap between the level of risk we face and
the level of adaptation underway has widened – that the adaptation action has
failed to keep pace with the worsening reality of climate risk (that’s pretty
much the two sides of a failing risk assessment and management process?)
· the UK has the capacity and resources to respond
effectively but it has not done so yet (we could, but we haven’t)
· action now will be cheaper than waiting to deal
with the consequences; the Government must lead that action (it will only cost
more the longer we leave it)
· urgent attention is needed in the next two
years in relation to 8 risk areas – and they seem worth citing in full
as they are potentially so fundamental to the wellbeing and security of us all:
§ risks to the viability and diversity of terrestrial
and freshwater habitats and species - from multiple hazards
§ risks to soil health - from increased flooding
§ risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration -
from multiple hazards - leading to increased emissions
§ risks to crops, livestock and commercial trees -
from multiple hazards
§ risks to supply of food, goods and vital services
due to climate-related collapse of supply chains and distribution networks
§ risks to people and the economy - from
climate-related failure of the power system
§ risks to human health, wellbeing and productivity -
from increased exposure to heat in homes and other buildings
§ multiple risks to the UK - from climate change
impacts overseas
Multiple
hazards. Risks to supply of food, goods and vital supplies with the collapse of
supply chains and distribution networks. Risks to human health and
wellbeing. Two years. Urgent attention. Adaptation action has failed to keep
pace with the worsening reality of climate risk. ‘We can act to help manage
these risks but we must act now.’
And
for those of us who may only have 3’17” of time or attention and like
information in animated, picture form (say at a Cabinet meeting?), well there’s
a film that spells it out https://youtu.be/EOW4fG-qlWUhttps://youtu.be/EOW4fG-qlWU
And so, ‽istis wonders whether:
‽ pondering on is perhaps something of
a luxury
‽ putting off a decision to act now is
possibly indeed to make a decision
‽ whilst there may be an important link
between a clear understanding of the problem and its causes (problem locus)
e.g: human made or not (and again there is the danger of putting off action
while the debate rumbles on - if only on the airwaves of the BBC seeking to
line up a binary balance on an uneven seesaw of evidence, perhaps - is indeed a
decision) and solution focus - many solutions are proposed and perhaps could
help, whatever the cause;
‽ attempts to apportion responsibility
and blame may simply distract
‽ science and tech solutions,
geo-engineering (e.g: the scaling up of carbon extraction technology) may save
us (and the thank-goodness-for-the vaccine-as-Messiah response to Covid-19 has
potentially strengthened this view?) but can we be sure…? and what if they
can’t? and what if it is too late by the time we find out the answer to those
questions…?
‽ the turning point perhaps only comes
when minds meet hearts (this is affecting me and mine, here and now); when
profits meet losses; when it is more expensive not to act; when the danger is
clear and present; when we cannot not
But again, what happens when perhaps we
realise all that too late?
In risk assessment it is probably worth
remembering that low probability events nevertheless sometime happen; is it
worth a gamble? As the weight of evidence mounts, then to forget that high
probability events are likely to happen is perhaps, possibly, maybe beyond
reckless…
Multiple
hazards. Risks to supply of food, goods and vital supplies with the collapse of
supply chains and distribution networks. Risks to human health and
wellbeing. Two years. Urgent attention. Adaptation action has failed to keep
pace with the worsening reality of climate risk. ‘We can act to help manage
these risks but we must act now.’ Independent Assessment of UK Climate
Risk
But if we believe that where there is a will, there is
a way - then what else might be different for us, for our children, for this
‘Pale Blue Dot’ imagined by Carl Sagan[v] and seen in recent weeks from, perhaps, a new
perspective by Branson and Bezos (floating momentarily on the profits of a host
of other people's work):
‘That's
home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever
heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate
of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and
economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every
creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young
couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer,
every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar,"
every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our
species lived there - on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.’
©
Pistis
NB: further reflections and comments
linked to this week’s theme and past blog
entries to be found on Twitter: replies, retweets (which don’t necessarily
indicate approval, sometimes the very opposite!) and ‘likes’:
@Pistis_wonders
[i] https://www.theccc.org.uk/
[ii] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/29/rnli-donations-soar-in-response-to-farages-migrant-criticism
[iii] https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/research-to-review-and-update-indicators-of-climate-related-risks-and-actions-in-england-adas/ Published
June 2021
[iv] Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk - Climate Change
Committee (theccc.org.uk)
[v] https://www.dailygood.org/pdf/ij.php?tid=682
