This week ‽istis has pondered questions again (after some wonderings and ponderings in a blog from March 2021i ….), specifically speculative questions:
‽ where various things may
happen or result and where there is no obvious way of reaching a clear view
about an outcome above a more or less well-informed guess
· who
will win the Manchester derby FA Cup Final?
· will
I beat my personal best time in a race?
· will
unredacted WhatsApp messages, notebooks and diaries be handed to the Covid
Inquiry – voluntarily or following judicial review?
· will the US do a deal with Turkmenistan to help the country curb colossal methane leaks from 184 super-emitter events, equivalent to emissions from 65 million cars.
- will the search of the Barragem do Arade reservoir in Portugal shed light on the disappearance of Madelaine McCann?ii
· will
Ukraine prevail?
· will
the Bishop of Oxford be suspended?iii
· will
there be a coalition government after the next UK General Election?
· will
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu be the next president of Türkiye?
· will
a debate in the Oxford Union be disrupted to the point where it dos not go
ahead?iv
· will
Mike Pence be the Republican US Presidential candidate?
· will
Phillip Schofield present another television show?
· will
Putin still be in power at the end of the year?
· will
Britain rejoin the EU?
· will our cat
catch the fly?v
Possibly we might differentiate between speculation and:
a) reportage (news of things
that are happening or have actually happened), and
b) a reasonable prediction based
on an assessment of high probability informed by
i) expertise based on experience
(will the sun rise tomorrow? – almost without question, it always has done
since records began!; will our son’s plane land safely? – almost certainly,
they very nearly all somehow do), or
ii) expertise based on
learning/study – being able to comprehensive and multi-factorial complex
probability judgements (whilst never forgetting that ‘low-probability events
sometimes happen’vi
And ‽istis
continues to be interested in the various words that we might use to quantify
likelihood and describe it differently:
· when
does my ‘possible’ become a ‘probable’?
· is
this the same for you?
· where
do we each draw a line?vii
Sometimes
it can seem that the ‘news’ channels are full of the airing of speculation and
the views and opinions of the more or less well-informed
· perhaps
the main function is to fill the programme, to fill the schedule and the air
waves (which are expected to be ‘open’ 24 hours a day), to add to the column
inches, to pepper websites between advertising ‘click links’
· possibly
the aim is to raise the public profile and the pay packets of the speculators,
the ‘talking heads’viii…
· maybe
an overt or covert, deliberate or accidental function is to distract and
divert; a new opium of the people?ix
On further
ponderance the amount of time either speculating or listening to or reading
others’ speculation might vary as the following conditions apply:
· I have
some expertise (including expertise from experience) that might be relevant –
potentially to project from other situations to this; perhaps I can make an
informed guess based on probability analysis? (though perhaps the greater the
expertise, the greater the frustration with some of the talking
heads?)
· I
just have no way of telling?
· neither
do I have anyway of influencing the outcome
· whether
something does or doesn’t happen, won’t really affect me anyway
So, ‽istis wonders why so much time seems to be
spent on speculation when it may not have any bearing on the outcome? Perhaps,
possibly, maybe:
· it can
be helpful to think about the many factors that could influence any eventual
outcome and see the potential complexity, or sheer chance, or work that may
lead to one outcome rather than another
· clues
could be provided as to what, who, or how the outcome could be influenced
· it
may prompt and inform action (including by me or you) that actually could
influence an outcome
· we
could prepare, or prepare better, for either or any outcome; undertake some
contingency planning – emotionally or physically; it may help to see things
coming rather than just having to react and improvise (in a way that is only
slightly less obvious than the level we perhaps already do improvise and make
it up as we go along, day in, day out...)
Finally,
‽istis wonders whether ‘Schrödinger questions’ might be a useful name for the
questions that seem to produce so much speculative ponderance, this week and
each week - or possibly not…
And ‽istis resolves to listen out for ‘Schrödinger questions’ and perhaps, possibly, maybe even resist the temptation to contribute unless more light than heat can be generated...
©‽istis
NB: further reflections and comments linked to this week’s theme and past blog entries to be found on Twitter: replies, retweets (which don’t necessarily indicate approval, sometimes the very opposite!) and ‘likes’: @Pistis_wonders. ‘Follows’ and respectful comment and dialogue welcome...
i https://pistisrec.blogspot.com/2021/03/pistis-reclaims-questions-weekending.html
iii https://anglican.ink/2023/05/23/why-the-bishop-of-oxford-should-be-suspended/
iv https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-65714821
v The answer was yes! With apologies…
vii And maybe see a previous blog from May 2020: https://pistisrec.blogspot.com/2020/05/pistis-seeks-to-avoid-then-miracle.html
viii Though some may consider (ungenerously) that other parts of the anatomy are occasionally deployed…
ix https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1843/critique-hpr/intro.html
