‽istis ponders
tragedies, catastrophic implosions, heeding warnings - and tipping points (weekending
June 24th 2023)
‽istis
likes to reference a variety of sources for news and information, but was
struck by the ‘Top stories’ page on the ‘Guardian Editions UK Daily’ as the
ending of this week approaches (Friday, June 23rd’s edition).
Next to each other are three stories that take us
from UK domestic matters - to a story that some might say has disproportionately
dominated headlines - and on to an international/global story with potential existential implications for everyone and everything:
· Economy: Recession fears as inflation forces Bank to raise rates to 15-year high (largest feature/picture)
· Titanic sub incident: Crew believed to have died in ‘catastrophic implosion’ (smaller feature/picture)
· Environment: Ecological tipping points could occur much sooner than expected, study finds (smallest feature/picture – and font size!)
Leaving aside perhaps rather crass potential associations
of the phrase ‘catastrophic implosion’ with the Tory Party or the Church of
England’s reputation for managing safeguarding matters[i] - there
seems to be much to ponder in all of this…
Not least the relative coverage and, perhaps,
levels of response to incidents and desperate tragedies in/on the sea if comparisons are made[ii]
between the international search and rescue/recovery operation for a
submersible with five people on board – v – the response to the sinking of a
boat last week overloaded with people seeking what they saw as a better, safer
life, “one of the biggest tragedies in the Mediterranean” and tens maybe
hundreds of people died…
So as the week ends, ‽istis
has been wondering mainly about dangers and hazards; warnings – heeded and
unheeded; ‘accidents’ that perhaps could be renamed ‘reasonable preventables’;
risk assessment and management; mitigations and reassurances; hubris and unlearned or forgotten memories of events more than a hundred years' ago (iii); elusive foresight
and the seemingly ever-'wonderful thing': hindsight…
These are themes that ‽istis has indeed pondered before[iv]
and, on reflection, they have been a major longstanding focus, not least in past
professional life.
There is also maybe a link to the ponderings of a
few weeks’ ago if we find ourselves identifying with Schrödinger’s cat[v] living
in circumstances where various outcomes are all possible, all 'true'. It may be just far too
complex to make an informed decision about how to act - even if we believe that we could individually make a difference…?
So, with all these issues teeming round and around,
three questions especially continue to prevail for ‽istis right
now at the point of typing:
· Who or what do we look to for any
reassurance in the face of hazards and dangers?
o
despite cost of living and
interest rate increases in the UK including the likely impact on housing costs
(especially mortgages[vi]) did
people across the nation sleep a little more easily when they heard the UK’s Prime
Minister say: ”I’m here to tell you that I am totally one hundred per cent on
it and it is going to be OK and we are going to get through this… and that is the most important thing that I
wanted to let you know today.” (So that’s alright then, especially as the message
was delivered in a warehouse and with just a hint of softened, person-of-the-people, glottlestopped ‘t’s - thank goodness Mr Sunak is “on i(t)”… though ‽istis does worry that the PM
seems to have no ‘%’ left for anything else!)
·
How do we make sense of the idea
of potentially elusive but absolutely critical ‘tipping points’ – from which
there may be no turning back?
o
the point at which carbon fibre
might fail[vii]
o
the point at which stress
because of living conditions in one’s home country makes leaving and a perilous
sea crossing seem a better option
o
the point at which someone’s
anxiety about their financial situation and their continuing ability to provide
for their family becomes utterly, utterly overwhelming[viii]
o
the point at which the
environment, the ecology, our planet, our all-of-life support system breaks down
catastrophically with ‘more than a
fifth of ecosystems worldwide, including the Amazon rainforest, (are) at risk
of a catastrophic breakdown within a human lifetime’; where one ‘driver of
destruction’, such as climate change or deforestation combines ‘with other
threats, such as water stress, degradation and river pollution from mining’ and
‘the breakdown comes much quicker.’[ix]
o
the point at which we leave inertia, uncertainty, apathy or hubris aside and heed warnings
so that ‘hindsight’ might no longer be described as ‘a wonderful thing’. A
passage from the report ‘Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by
multiple faster and noisier drivers’ by Simon Willcock, Gregory S. Cooper, John
Addy & John A. Dearing referred to and published this week perhaps demands
to be cited in full:
‘For many observers, UK Chief
Scientist John Beddington’s argument that the world faced a ‘perfect storm’ of
global events by 2030 has now become a prescient warning. Recent mention of
‘ghastly futures’, ‘widespread ecosystem collapse’ and ‘domino effects on
sustainability goals’ tap into a growing consensus within some scientific
communities that the Earth is rapidly destabilizing through ‘cascades of
collapse’. Some even speculate on ‘end-of-world’ scenarios involving
transgressing planetary boundaries (climate, freshwater and ocean
acidification), accelerating reinforcing (positive) feedback mechanisms and
multiplicative stresses.’
And
finally, ‽istis
wonders:
·
How do we live and behave and
think and feel in a world where perhaps in so many respects, possibly for so many
of us, most things are OK and we will get through it – until maybe suddenly
they are not, and we don’t…‽
©‽istis
NB: further
reflections and comments linked to this week’s theme and past blog entries to
be found on Twitter: replies, retweets (which don’t necessarily indicate
approval, sometimes the very opposite!) and ‘likes’: @Pistis_wonders. Twitter ‘follows’
and respectful comment and dialogue welcome...
[i]
Many references including: https://premierchristian.news/en/news/article/c-of-e-less-safe-and-resistant-to-scrutiny-says-bishop-after-safeguarding-board-disbanded
[ii]
Many references including: https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/story-behind-packed-migrant-boat-exposes-ugly-truth-in-missing-sub-crisis/news-story/476b2ffa738a81e830e2f5a75d5f7d96
& https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/syria-migrants-boat-sinking-titanic-submersive-missing-rcna90336
[iii] https://www.newsweek.com/james-cameron-says-arrogance-hubris-doomed-both-titanic-titan-1808574
[iv] Dangers and hazards, risk assessment and decision-making, in a pandemic-related blog from May ‘20: https://pistisrec.blogspot.com/2020/05/pistis-seeks-to-avoid-then-miracle.html & https://pistisrec.blogspot.com/2021/12/pistis-wonders-influences-weekending.html Including the sentence: ‘low probability events can nevertheless sometimes occur; that the holes in a many-layered ‘Swiss Cheese’ model of risk assessment may yet line up however improbable it seems; that there may be gaps in the tightest of safety nets woven with the most robust warped and wefted threads…’
[v]
Which perhaps links with another ‘story’ this week that seems to have exercised
itchy Twitter fingers – references include: https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/a-story-too-good-to-check-origins-of-student-identifying-as-a-cat-tale-unearthed-351303/
& https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/education/961351/the-cat-self-identity-row-gripping-an-east-sussex-school
[vi] This
feature on the Bank of England website in Jan 2023 seems helpful, though not necessarily
reassuring https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2023/how-are-the-rising-cost-of-living-and-interest-rates-affecting-households
[vii] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/20/missing-titanic-submarine-best-and-worst-case-scenarios
