Tuesday 2 July 2024

‽istis takes the temperature of the UK General Election debates (weekending June 29th 2024)

 

‽istis takes the temperature of the UK General Election debates (weekending June 29th 2024)

This week ‽istis has listened to hours of coverage of the General Election campaign, to leaders, deputies, spokespeople, the general public and commentators galore – the soundbites are up and running; the main lines of ‘attack’, ‘defence’ or offence are rehearsed, sometimes even when they relate to the question asked…

But ‽istis has been wondering about the things that are left unsaid; that don’t seem to get the airtime; that may cost a fortune: such as the crumbling not-fit-for-purposeness of Westminster itself (c.£22billon?)[i]; social care (already costing c.£20.5billion with the current level of provision in 2022/2023)[ii]; the cost of compensation in the infected blood scandal (c.£10billion?)[iii]; the compensation cost of pension underpayment for ‘WASPI women’ (c.£3.5 - £10.5billion)[iv]; the suggested extra c.£38billion per year to ‘revive the National Health Service’[v]…

…and then there is the climate…

‘The final head to head debate between Starmer and Sunak didn’t have a single question on climate or nature.’ Josiah Mortimer in ‘Byline Times’[vi]

This week, ‽istis has revisited previous blogs[vii] and many reports, publications and websites[viii] relating to what almost ubiquitously is called the ‘climate crisis’.

One summary of the three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Sixth Assessment Reports (published as a single synthesised report in March 2023 and ‘drawing on the findings of 234 scientists on the physical science of climate change, 270 scientists on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change, and 278 scientists on climate change mitigation’) suggests:

‘It (also) makes for grim reading. Across nearly 8,000 pages, the AR6 details the devastating consequences of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions around the world — the destruction of homes, the loss of livelihoods and the fragmentation of communities, for example — as well as the increasingly dangerous and irreversible risks should we fail to change course.’[ix]

‘The science is clear: to avert the worst impacts of climate change and preserve a liveable planet, global warming needs to be limited as much as possible and as a matter of urgency. (IPCC). Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to enable the long-term global average surface temperature increase to be kept well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C’[x]

The World Resources Institute suggests that the impact of climate changes ‘on people and ecosystems are more widespread and severe than expected’ and that ‘future risks will escalate rapidly with every fraction of a degree of warming’. Currently according to the UK Climate Change Committee, 'global average air surface air temperature has risen 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels and is now exceeding the range of temperatures seen over the last 10,000 years.'   

Right now:

·         c.50% of the world's population currently contends with severe water scarcity for at least 1 month a year

·         there is an increase in vector-bone diseases such as malaria, West Nile virus and Lyme disease because of higher temperatures

·         agricultural productivity has slowed in middle and low latitude countries – with crop production shrinking by a 1/3rd in Africa since 1961

·         since 2008, extreme floods and storms have forced over 20million people from their homes – every year.

According to the UK Climate Change Committee, 2023 was ‘the warmest year on record globally, reaching very close to 1.5⁰C for the first time across multiple global datasets. 77 countries set new monthly average records - with large parts of America, Europe and South America experiencing record warm temperatures. Even if a 1.5⁰C temperature rise can be held to, it is reported that this is likely to mean:

·         14% of land species at high risk of extinction

·         950 million people exposed to water stress, heat stress and desertification

·         40-54% increase in fire-burnt areas across Mediterranean Europe

·         45-58 more days per year with temperatures above 35⁰C

·         The share of the global population exposed to flooding to rise by 24%

·         70=90% further decline in coral reefs.

But perhaps for too many of us it is all too much ‘not here and not now’, too much not a ‘clear and present danger’, too much ‘the fault of others’…

Yet according to the UK Climate Change Committee[xi] 2023 was the warmest year on record globally, reaching closet to 1.5⁰C above pre-industrial levels for the first time across multiple global datasets. In the UK, the first ever recorded day with temperatures reaching more than 40⁰C was seen in July 2022. ‘The heatwaves across the 2022 summer led to over 4,500 excess deaths in England and Wales, alongside unexpected wild fires and droughts in E.Anglia, impacting food production and stressing ecosystems.’

And yet still: ‘The final head to head debate between Starmer and Sunak (one of whom is likely to be the UK’s new Prime Minister next week) didn’t have a single question on climate or nature.’

Not only may it be too much ‘not here and not now’ or a ‘clear and present danger’ for me, but some doubt the unequivocal assertions of scientist after scientist, report after report that ‘climate change is real and human activities are the main cause’ (IPCC 6th Report), that ‘people living in poverty – those who had little role in creating the climate crisis – are least able to respond, but most likely to bear the brunt of its effects’, that ‘the world continues to destroy natural ecosystems and consume fossil fuels at unsustainable rates, further fuelling climate change’… 

So, what might ‽istis have asked Mr Sunak and Mr Starmer, given the chance‽ 

Well here are some proposed questions:

·         Have you read and can you summarise the key points from the IPCC’s most recent (6th) Assessment Synthesis Report or the ‘Summary for Policymakers’[xii]?

·         Do you believe that the climate is changing, that Earth, our home, is warming?

·         If the answer is ‘no’, from where have you got your information and what gives you confidence that it is more correct than the IPCC report’s conclusions?  

·         If the answer is ‘yes’, do you believe that human activities are the main cause of global warming?

·         If you do not believe that human activities are the main cause of global warming, from where have you got your information and what gives you confidence that it is more correct than the IPCC report’s conclusions?   

·         If you believe that human activities are the main cause of global warming, do you believe that the polluters/contributors to global warming should pay – and that this should take into account total and aggregated activity that has contributed to global warming over the past 250 years[xiii]  What and how will you compensate or pay – and to whom?

·         If you believe that the globe is warming (perhaps irrespective of whether you believe that human activity is the main cause or not) with consequences for biodiversity, water and food provision and security, for migration, for sea levels, for extreme weather events, for peak temperatures, etc. what do you consider to be the potential consequences for the UK and the people that live within it over the next five years, ten years, twenty years (if we are saved…)?

And what is the plan…? 

Followed by perhaps that most challenging of questions: 

·     Could you be more specific, please?

And then:

·         Could you be even more specific, please?

©‽istis

NB: further reflections and comments linked to this week’s theme and past blog entries to be found on X/Twitter with replies, retweets (which don’t necessarily indicate approval, sometimes the very opposite!) and ‘likes’: @Pistis_wonders.  X/Twitter ‘follows’ and respectful comment and dialogue welcome...  


[i] https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/palace-of-westminster-restoration-could-take-over-half-a-century-and-cost-22bn-24-02-2022/

[iv] ‘WASPI’: Women Against State Pension Inequality & https://www.theactuary.com/2024/03/28/ombudsman-demands-compensation-waspi-women

[vii] Most significant ones:

·         Pistis feels the heat (weekending July 31st 2021): https://pistisrec.blogspot.com/2021/07/pistis-feels-heat-weekending-july-31st.html

·         Pistis ponders no small change (weekending November 6th 2021): https://pistisrec.blogspot.com/2021/11/pistis-ponders-no-small-change.html

·         Pistis wonders how clear and present a danger (weekending October 16th 2021): https://pistisrec.blogspot.com/2021/10/pistis-wonders-how-clear-and-present.html

·         Pistis ponders whether there is anything more important (weekending March 25th 2023): https://pistisrec.blogspot.com/2023/03/pistis-ponders-whether-there-is.html

[viii] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/ & UN Research Guide: ‘Climate Change A Global Issue’ https://research.un.org/en/climate-change & The Royal Society ‘Climate change in the critical decade’ https://royalsociety.org/news-resources/publications/2022/ipcc-ar6-summary/?gad_source=1&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIstPUm5-IhwMVrpNQBh2XUg6AEAAYASAAEgJT7PD_BwE & The World Resources Institute ‘10 Big Findings from the 2023 IPCC Report on Climate Change’ https://www.wri.org/insights/2023-ipcc-ar6-synthesis-report-climate-change-findings#:~:text=Even%20if%20countries%20achieved%20their,C%20(2.7%20degrees%20F).

[xii] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/summary-for-policymakers/

[xiii] See https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2  Article by Hannah Ritchie   


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