Friday, 9 June 2023

Pistis ponders values and AI (weekending June 10th 2023)

 

istis ponders values across generations and wonders whether wisdom can be artificial (weekending June 10th 2023)

Two threads have been weaving around for istis this past week:

·        Generation matters: the ‘BCW Movatory’ – ‘Age of Values Report’ is published[i] with its motivation set out transparently: ‘If we speak to people’s values, we can move them, whether that be to purchase, to advocate, to embark on a treatment pathway, or to vote.’[ii]   Apparently members of ‘Generation Z’, born between 1997 and 2012 and the largest generation in the world, ‘are evidently clear-eyed in their desire for power, achievement, hedonism and stimulation’[iii]

·        Artificial Intelligence: suddenly ‘AI’ is all over the news with voices of alarm sounding (for perhaps yet again, the end of the world is nigh)[iv], calls for regulation (another attempt to carry on ruling, controlling or beating the world by the UK?)[v], a new headset launched with which to see and hear and experience – blending virtual and reality for a life augmented[vi], at quite a cost.

And this is what istis has mainly wondered:

·        is intelligence the same as wisdom? can ‘Artificial Intelligence’ be artificially ‘wise’? should/could/might we be seeking to develop ‘AW’ (Artificial Wisdom) programmes and applications and are we smart enough to know the difference?

 

·        if there are discernible shared values that can be said to be embraced and articulated in word and deed by large swathes of people who happen to be born within a defined set of years - then what could be the values that might right now be built-in, driving and guiding both the development of 'AI’ and also its application and operation? Whose values and what are they?

Are these legitimate questions to ask? Does it even work like that? istis may be doing little more than demonstrating an incomplete grasp of the issues involved – which may be part of the problem if istis is representative of most of us…

And then, furthermore, what values might be built-in, driving and guiding any regulation (located in the UK, or elsewhere) that seems likely to follow in the wake of technological progression?

If ‘AI’ programmes can draw on information and knowledge from a vast mass of sources (all digitised knowledge?) and can synthesise and come up with solutions to many of our most pressing problems, then whose interests might those solutions serve?

If AI/AW recommended solutions to some of the day’s political and social challenges are ones that are considered best for humanity as a whole (in some sort of Benthamite utilitarian-type calculation of the greatest good for the greatest number[vii]) then who might win out and who might lose? How will the richest 50 families in the UK who, we learned this week, hold ‘more wealth than half of the UK population, comprising 33.5 million people’[viii] fare, for example? …even if they are well-represented on any AI regulatory board (as owners of the means of production and owners of the means of provision are perhaps likely to be?)

What if AI/AW recommended solutions to some of the day’s political and social challenges followed a value position such as: ‘from each according to their ability, to each according to their need’[ix]

What if AI/AW recommended solutions to some of the day’s political and social challenges (emerging from almost unimaginable calculatory and synthesising capacity) were to enact the ‘Golden Rule’ as a foundation for behaviour?

Will the development of ‘AI’, its application and operation, and its potential regulation be driven by ‘Visionaries’, ‘Protectors’, ‘Traditionalists’, ‘Success Seekers’, ‘Adventurers’, ‘Good Neighbours’ or ‘Conformists’? Which of these seven proposed ‘values archetypes’, singly or in some combination, might develop, operate, apply and control an ‘AI’ future?[x]

…All for much greater ponderance and wondering and from minds more informed, intelligent and wise than istis'…

 

But, reading the  ‘Age of Values Report’ this week, has prompted istis to look at Shalom Schwartz’s ‘Theory of Basic Human Values’[xi] - the ideas that provided the overarching conceptual framework for the generational values’ study and report.  

Scwartz’s theory/model/approach/research tool…  ‘specifies a set of ten value orientations that are probably comprehensive of the major different orientations that are recognized across cultures.’ (see paper on ref xi)

·        POWER: Social status and prestige, control or dominance over people and resources. (social power, authority, wealth, preserving my public image)

·        ACHIEVEMENT: Personal success through demonstrating competence according to social standards. (successful, capable, ambitious, influential)

·        HEDONISM: Pleasure and sensuous gratification for oneself. (pleasure, enjoying life, self-indulgence)

·        STIMULATION: Excitement, novelty, and challenge in life. (daring, a varied life, an exciting life)

·        SELF-DIRECTION: Independent thought and action-choosing, creating, exploring. (creativity, freedom, independent, curious, choosing own goals)

·        UNIVERSALISM: Understanding, appreciation, tolerance and protection for the welfare of all people and for nature. (broadminded, wisdom, social justice, equality, a world at peace, a world of beauty, unity with nature, protecting the environment)

·        BENEVOLENCE: Preservation and enhancement of the welfare of people with whom one is in frequent personal contact. (helpful, honest, forgiving, loyal, responsible)

·        TRADITION: Respect, commitment and acceptance of the customs and ideas that traditional culture or religion provide the self. (humble, accepting my portion in life, devout, respect for tradition, moderate)

·        CONFORMITY: Restraint of actions, inclinations, and impulses likely to upset or harm others and violate social expectations or norms. (politeness, obedient, self-discipline, honoring parents and elders)

·        SECURITY: Safety, harmony and stability of society, of relationships, and of self. (family security, national security, social order, clean, reciprocation of favors)

So, how are you and I orientated – individually or together?

What do you and I value – individually or together?

And again, what is valued by those who have power and influence now (really, virtually, ‘augmentally’) and who may be driving, building-in and guiding or controlling the development of ‘AI’ and its application, operation and regulation?

The future of current and future generations, whatsoever they may be called[xii], perhaps, possibly, may depend on the answer to this question…

©istis                                                                                                                    

NB: further reflections and comments linked to this week’s theme and past blog entries to be found on Twitter: replies, retweets (which don’t necessarily indicate approval, sometimes the very opposite!) and ‘likes’: @Pistis_wonders. ‘Follows’ and respectful comment and dialogue welcome...  

 

 



[i] https://bcwmovatory.com/bcw-age-of-values-2023-report/: ‘Our values are foundational; they shape

our identities, determine what is important  to us and impact how we engage with the  world and those communicating with us.  They are more constant than attitudes, opinion, knowledge, or emotion; because  once consolidated in adolescence, they tend  to remain stable throughout our adult lives. They not only explain past behaviors but can also predict how we will behave in the future.

‘Values are also everywhere, permeating culture and politics as never before. Whether it’s brand values, corporate values, cultural values, or our own personal values, they dominate our conversations and define our arguments.   So, we wanted to understand more since we are in the “Age of Values”; who holds

which values and where, and how they shape people’s interests, concerns, and behaviors.’

[iv] Joe Biden, 8.6.2023: Biden said. "I met in the Oval Office with eight leading scientists in the area of AI. Some are very worried that AI can actually overtake human thinking and planning. So we've got a lot to deal with. An incredible opportunity, but a lot do deal with." https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/06/01/president-biden-warns-ai-could-overtake-human-thinking/70277907007/

[v] ‘Barely a week goes by without AI experts issuing catastrophic warnings about the technology’s potential impacts, and even AI companies themselves have expressed a desire for regulation.’

In: ‘Rishi Sunak wants to lead the world on AI. The world ain’t listening’ by  Laurie Clarke, Annabelle Dickson And Cristina Gallardo in ‘Politico’: https://www.politico.eu/article/rishi-sunak-ai-technology-wants-to-lead-the-world-on-ai-the-world-aint-listening/

[x] From the BCW Motavatory report:    ‘Using our research data and working with our expert partners, we have established that we all belong to one of seven Values ArchetypesTM. Each has a distinct values profile, and therefore different life philosophies and communications imperatives for how to engage them. The archetypes range from ‘The Visionary’, who values personal freedom and creativity, to ‘The Protector’, who prioritizes people and the planet, to ‘The Traditionalist’, who focuses on safety, stability, and harmony. Our analysis busts the myth that Gen Z is one uniform group. Instead, it dominates the four other archetypes: ‘The Success Seeker’, who is driven by a desire for power and personal achievement; ‘The Adventurer’, someone who seeks stimulation and new experiences, ‘The Good Neighbor’, who places great importance on the welfare of friends, family, and the environment, and ‘The Conformist’, who wants to fit in and avoid confrontation.’ https://bcwmovatory.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/BCW-Movatory-Age-of-Values-2023.pdf

[xii] Greatest Generation: Born 1901-1924 / Silent Generation: Born 1925-1945 / Baby Boomers: Born 1946-1964 / Generation X: Born 1965-1980 / Millennials: Born 1981-1996 / Generation Z: Born 1997-2012 / Generation Alpha: Born 2013-2025… From: https://journeymatters.ai/7-generations/ ‘Journey Matters’ which, interestingly is ‘a visual learning community for multifamily marketing leaders.’


Sunday, 4 June 2023

Pistis ponders 'Schrödinger questions' (weekending June 3rd 2023)

 

‽istis ponders 'Schrödinger questions' (weekending June 3rd 2023) 


This week ‽istis has pondered questions again (after some wonderings and ponderings in a blog from March 2021i ….), specifically speculative questions:  

‽ where various things may happen or result and where there is no obvious way of reaching a clear view about an outcome above a more or less well-informed guess 

·     who will win the Manchester derby FA Cup Final?  

·     will I beat my personal best time in a race? 

·     will unredacted WhatsApp messages, notebooks and diaries be handed to the Covid Inquiry – voluntarily or following judicial review? 

·     will the US do a deal with Turkmenistan to help the country curb colossal methane leaks from 184 super-emitter events, equivalent to emissions from 65 million cars. 


      • will the search of the Barragem do Arade reservoir in Portugal shed light on the disappearance of Madelaine McCann?ii 

·     will Ukraine prevail?  

·     will the Bishop of Oxford be suspended?iii 

·     will there be a coalition government after the next UK General Election? 

·     will Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu be the next president of Türkiye? 

·     will a debate in the Oxford Union be disrupted to the point  where it dos not go ahead?iv  

·     will Mike Pence be the Republican US Presidential candidate? 

·     will Phillip Schofield present another television show? 

·     will Putin still be in power at the end of the year? 

·     will Britain rejoin the EU? 

·     will our cat catch the fly?v 

 Possibly we might differentiate between speculation and: 

a) reportage (news of things that are happening or have actually happened), and  

b) a reasonable prediction based on an assessment of high probability informed by  

i) expertise based on experience (will the sun rise tomorrow? – almost without question, it always has done since records began!; will our son’s plane land safely? – almost certainly, they very nearly all somehow do), or  

ii) expertise based on learning/study – being able to comprehensive and multi-factorial complex probability judgements (whilst never forgetting that ‘low-probability events sometimes happen’vi  


And ‽istis continues to be interested in the various words that we might use to quantify likelihood and describe it differently: 

·     when does my ‘possible’ become a ‘probable’? 

·     is this the same for you?  

·     where do we each draw a line?vii   


Sometimes it can seem that the ‘news’ channels are full of the airing of speculation and the views and opinions of the more or less well-informed  

·   perhaps the main function is to fill the programme, to fill the schedule and the air waves (which are expected to be ‘open’ 24 hours a day), to add to the column inches, to pepper websites between advertising ‘click links’ 

·   possibly the aim is to raise the public profile and the pay packets of the speculators, the ‘talking heads’viii…   

·   maybe an overt or covert, deliberate or accidental function is to distract and divert; a new opium of the people?ix 


On further ponderance the amount of time either speculating or listening to or reading others’ speculation might vary as the following conditions apply:  

·   I have some expertise (including expertise from experience) that might be relevant – potentially to project from other situations to this; perhaps I can make an informed guess based on probability analysis? (though perhaps the greater the expertise, the greater the frustration with some of the talking heads?)  

·   I just have no way of telling? 

·   neither do I have anyway of influencing the outcome 

·   whether something does or doesn’t happen, won’t really affect me anyway 


So, ‽istis wonders why so much time seems to be spent on speculation when it may not have any bearing on the outcome? Perhaps, possibly, maybe: 

·   it can be helpful to think about the many factors that could influence any eventual outcome and see the potential complexity, or sheer chance, or work that may lead to one outcome rather than another  

·   clues could be provided as to what, who, or how the outcome could be influenced 

·   it may prompt and inform action (including by me or you) that actually could influence an outcome 

·   we could prepare, or prepare better, for either or any outcome; undertake some contingency planning – emotionally or physically; it may help to see things coming rather than just having to react and improvise (in a way that is only slightly less obvious than the level we perhaps already do improvise and make it up as we go along, day in, day out...) 


Finally, ‽istis wonders whether ‘Schrödinger questions’ might be a useful name for the questions that seem to produce so much speculative ponderance, this week and each week - or possibly not…


And ‽istis resolves to listen out for ‘Schrödinger questions’ and perhaps, possibly, maybe even resist the temptation to contribute unless more light than heat can be generated...

 ©‽istis                                                                                                                     


NB: further reflections and comments linked to this week’s theme and past blog entries to be found on Twitter: replies, retweets (which don’t necessarily indicate approval, sometimes the very opposite!) and ‘likes’: @Pistis_wonders. ‘Follows’ and respectful comment and dialogue welcome...   


i https://pistisrec.blogspot.com/2021/03/pistis-reclaims-questions-weekending.html

ii https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/what-police-found-in-madeleine-mccann-reservoir-search-in-portugal/926401590.html

iii https://anglican.ink/2023/05/23/why-the-bishop-of-oxford-should-be-suspended/

iv https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-65714821

v The answer was yes! With apologies…

vi https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/4056895/extremely-low-probability-events-happen-all-the-time-does-this-allow-us-to-d

vii And maybe see a previous blog from May 2020: https://pistisrec.blogspot.com/2020/05/pistis-seeks-to-avoid-then-miracle.html

viii Though some may consider (ungenerously) that other parts of the anatomy are occasionally deployed…

ix https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1843/critique-hpr/intro.html


‽istis ponders a pause (weekending July 27th 2024)

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